I love Star Wars

The Best of Times!!!!

Why Facebook could be worth $200 Billion or more.

This is the bull case for Facebook being worth more the $80 a share. 901 million users. 500 million plus daily active users. Now every user gives their personal information over to Facebook for free. What's info on 901 million people worth? Cable companies pay more then $4000 per user. I know Facebook is free and cable companies get paid monthly. So can Facebook use its network (you must admit it is a network) to build it's cash and earnings. My bet is that Facebook will grow it's user base to over 1.5 billion people. 901 million users at $110 bucks per user is about $100 billion worth or about $38 bucks a share. If they can add users and monetize each user, I see their annual revenue at about $20 billion in less then 5 years.

Cable users about $4,000 per user. when sold

Facebook about $110 per user. (they get for free)

Folks Facebook has one ace in the hole. http://developers.facebook.com/blog/post/108/

Facebook Connect is the key here. Facebook Connect is on thousands of websites and growing.

Facebook is a network and you are a subscriber and that's worth Billions

Wall Street is worried about the next Quarter. Facebook gets you connected.

$80 bucks in 5 years is my target and one more thing, if they get mobile right its even higher price.

These are my thoughts for what it's worth.

Todd

Amazon, Facebook and why you should not over think the news on the IPO of Facebook

I found this and thought it would provide some prospective!!!

Facebook isn't the first Internet giant to "break" its IPO price.

FORTUNE -- In all the hubbub over Facebook (FB) shares falling below their $38 IPO price, venture capitalist Bill Gurley reminds us that such a "break" does not necessarily mean that the stock is a long-term dud. From a tweet late Friday:

Like Facebook, Amazon's (AMZN) underwriters had raised the offering range prior to IPO, ultimately pricing at $18 per share. It then "broke" on its fourth day of trading, closing down at $17.12 per share. The following day was even worse, closing at $16.75 per share. In fact, Amazon shares closed below their offering price for 5 of its first 13 days of trading.

And, to Gurley's point, it closed below the closing price on its first day of trading ($20.75) for two months.

But none of that doomed Amazon stock to a lifetime of mediocrity. As of last check, the company's stock was trading at around $219. So take comfort Facebook fans, not all is (necessarily) lost...

Sign up for Dan's daily email newsletter on deals and deal-makers: GetTermSheet.com

Posted in: Amazon, Bill Gurley, Facebook, IPO, Venture Capital

Facebook closed around $31

Faster then I could have hoped. Facebook is sucking gutter water. Now I would be looking close. The time to trade is soon. I see a great trade from here. I see a bad opening in the morning (23rd of May) then I would buy baby. I would let it open for the first 30 mins and then a trade to $36.5, let's keep an eye on it. Wait for the pitch down the middle.

Just my thoughts.

Todd

Facebook and the mess. Where to Buy?

Here is my simple answer for everyone who cares. By the number of text messages and calls I can see Facebook is on your mind. Like I said before do you remember AOL?? I know you do. Facebook is not AOL yet. Here is the trade. Buy Facebook below $29 if you get the chance. Then watch as the Wall Street pros work their magic on the reasons why you can't buy when it's $29 or lower and then you will know you should buy it. Buy it and wait. With 901 million users they will figure it out. They will grow. Morgan Stanley priced the IPO to high. $32 and it would have kick butt. $38 and they were pigs and you know what happens to pigs.

I like FACEBOOK TO $50 AND HIGHER. When you see growth it will take off, the key is growth in earnings and Mobile. They will figure it out.

Just my thoughts,

Todd

JP Morgan $2 Billion in trading loses

Let's cut through the news about JP Morgan losing on a trade. It means nothing. Why do you ask?? Banks take risk all the time $2 billion on JP's balance sheet is almost a none event. People, the media and the United states congress want to have a target, they want to blame someone for the crappy job they have done managing the USA's own balance sheet. Risk is part of life and bankers are paid to take it. When banks lose on a trade the cowards in congress want to blame someone, they can't except that's the market and that the market has risk. I suggest they focus on their own failed trades and the fact that they risk our tax dollars and are never held  accountable. They piss away money and trade out our future with reckless disregard for all of us.

Shame on the NEWS media as they just try to make all of us scared and sell news because it sells.

20/20 hide sight vision, only the news media and Congress has it.

read between the lines folks!!!

Todd

Bono, Facebook and Media Bullshit!!!

I was driving to LA today and I heard Tammy on 93.1 Jack FM doing the news report. What do I hear? Bono  from U2 is a Billionaire now because of the facebook IPO. So I called bullshit. Over and over I see the media blast news and its flat out crap. I started to check the web and I find this bullshit all over the web. Real mainstream media reporting this complete crap. Below is a link to MTV news reporting the same crap.

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1685361/bono-facebook-stake-richest-rocker.jhtml

For the record this is complete Bullshit. IT takes TMZ to set the record straight

http://www.tmz.com/2012/05/18/bono-facebook-paul-mccartney/

Now I did some research and the most he is likely to make is around $24 million. Its still great money but NOT $1.4 billion

The media does not care the crap they put out. I miss you Dan Rather.

Does anyone want to report the truth. I know first hand they don't.

Thanks TMZ

Todd

Facebook.

My thoughts don't matter about Facebook and the coming IPO. Wow have I been questioned to death about this deal. So here goes. It's changed the world. That said you may see $75 to $100 of the next 3 years. Facebook is a platform and they rule the world in social but the main issue is that Tech changes and it changes like mad and with speed. Buy it, own it and hold on because its not going away. Remember AOL oh you don't, Well you should.

Enjoy the ride.

Todd

After hours Trading on Groupon

11.73 

+1.84 (18.54%)

After Hours: 13.84 +2.11 (17.94%)

May 14, 7:59PM EDT  

Well are we lucky or what???

Well last night I told everyone I would cover the Groupon short and today Groupon rocketed higher and is now above $13.50 a share. This leads me to me point my old manager told me once. "Even a blind robin gets a worm once and a while". I will let you know when I have another short or long. In the mean time stay well.

Todd

 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/14/us-groupon-idUSBRE84D16H20120514?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=71

Groupon trade worked.

Well Groupon has reached the level in which the risk of being short is pointless. I think below $10 is a fine place to cover your short. I still would avoid owning this company until they get a few quarters of normal reporting under their belt. This trade work out very nicely. I will update you the next time we get a pitch right down the middle. You must wait for the right pitch, on wall street you never have to swing until your ready. 

Todd